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The overriding conclusions are that the cycles of tourism and wholesale and retail closely resembles that of the aggregate business cycle, while the non-sugar agriculture and fishing cycle is acyclical. (2000), Economic fluctuations, turning points and cyclical classification, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica, Madrid, Report. (1994), “Le repérage des Cycles du PIB en France depuis l’après guerre, Economie et Prévision”, No. (1997), “Classical Business Cycles for G-7 and European Countries”, Journal of Business, Vol. Firstly, to establish and characterise a reference cycle (based on real output) for Barbados over the quarterly period 1974-2003 using the Bry and Boschan algorithm. Secondly, to link this aggregate output cycle to the cycles of the individual sectors that comprises real output. The R word has begun to appear in the media again bringing with it three technical questions viz, How will we know we are in recession? Second, for the classical and acceleration cycles it is possible to obtain a reasonably simple approximation to the BBQ algorithm that may permit one to write down a likelihood function. Osborn (1997), "Business Cycles for G7 and European Countries". This paper does not provide answers to these questions rather it focuses on the technical issues that we need to resolve in order to provide good answers to these questions. First, the business cycle states obtained by the BBQ algorithm are complex statistical processes and it is not possible to write down an exact likelihood function for them.

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However, the recognition lag is less than four months, in contrast to an average of more than eleven months for the official chronology.

Altissimo F, A Bassanetti, R Cristadoro, M Forni, M Lippi, M Hallin, L Reichlin and G Veronese (2001), ‘Euro COIN: a real time coincident indicator of the euro area business cycle’, Centre for Economic Policy Research Discussion Paper No 3108.

(2004), “Dating Business Cycles: A Methodological Contribution with an Application to the Euro Area”, Oxford Bulletin of Economic and Statistics, Vol.

(2003), “Dating and Forecasting the Belgian Business Cycle”, Universite Catholique du Louvain, IRES, Working Papers. (2003), “Dating the Italian Business Cycle: A Comparison of Procedures”, Istituto di Studi ed Analisi Economica, ISAE, Working Papers.

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